Aegean advances 10, the cheapest of the square ElvalHalcor and the sprinter Fourlis

Aegean advances 10, the cheapest of the square ElvalHalcor and the sprinter Fourlis

By Apostolos Manthos

After the 8.70 euros which were the historical highs of the Aegean Airlines (ARAIG) what else can be put forward in the schematic analysis to stop its headlong rush? The 9 euros? He broke them. Perhaps the 10 euros which is also a round number? Probably this one too, as shown by the first quarter of 2023 with a turnover of 229.1 million euros, 33% higher than that of 2019, is about to bow out. And it was not just revenues that excelled, since the group managed in a traditionally weak first quarter to generate a positive EBITDA of 19.3 million euros, whereas where it is keeping its mouth shut is in the strong net cash flows which exceeded 138 million euros, the higher performance of presales for the summer period, with the result that the cash balance was 591.1 million euros compared to 527.9 qu he had at the end of 2022, even after the repayment of the loan of 68.5 million euros. Management expects strong demand and bookings operating with 76 aircraft and offering 18 million seats (2 million more than in 2022 and 800,000 more than in 2019) across a network spanning 46 countries. Thus, the momentum that begins and is reflected in the upward angle of the bi-weekly price chart causes the stock to start increasing its price by a double-digit number.

Some seem to have rushed to estimate its financial results for the first quarter of 2023 ElvalHalcor (ELHA) “giving” its share with a -5.6% to 1,684 euros during last Wednesday’s session since the next day and in the light of a closer examination of things, cancellation counter-powers have arisen. created by closing at 1,754 euros with an increase of +4.16%. Therefore, despite the decline in net profitability due to a large percentage of fluctuations in metal prices and a moderate increase in financial expenses, investors applauded the strong organic a-EBITDA profitability which better reflects the organic and cash profitability of the group and a reduction in its net borrowing result of 60.2 million euros compared to what it had at the end of 2022. The rest was thrown on the table as bad group rating sheets.

In fact, although management predicted to us in its presentation to Institutional Investors Union that the first quarter of last year could hardly reach it due to the occasional frenzied demand, it finally managed to bring more sales to 930.52 million euros from 923.575 million euros in 2022, with an EBIT, despite the difficult international environment of high inflation and successive increases in key rates, to be formed with a slight decrease to 51.628 million euros compared to 58.267 million euros in the corresponding period last year. Buyers, of course, have reason to go further because comparing sizes between Q1 2021 and Q1 2023 is like comparing AEK with Campaniakos. Indeed, we fall here into the following paradox with the share price having during the first quarter of 2021 an average (Vwap) of 2.14 euros with the highest price recorded at 2.67 euros whereas now it does not is only 1.75 euros with a discount of 22%. In other words, the current price of ElvalHalcor, which incidentally is well below its book value, is already very cheap, and cheap has no chance in such a group of becoming cheap at square, which means that the advantage is – in this in particular, the positive environment that is forming on the Greek stock market – several times that of the fall. Technically, the stock now looks set to move up the long-term bullish channel “C” which starts at €1.82 and extends up to €2.10.

I finish with the group Fourlis (FRLK), which tries in the last sessions to hide its moods behind the small stop operated by the action at the limit of 4 to 4.10 euros. A little tricky though as the momentum of the move building up after the bullish breakout of the huge bearish pivot “M” cannot be contained or rather masked any longer. The wick in the chart is in the €4.20 area. Going through it with a large volume of transactions will put the title on a violent upward trajectory towards the level of 5 euros.

According to the group’s financial figures, we will focus more on the increase in turnover of 21.1% to 116.6 million euros against 96.3 million euros over the corresponding period of 2022 and on the consolidation of the very good dynamics that gave the last quarter of 2022 since this quarter is traditionally also the weakest in terms of profitability. Then comes the good, even if the distributor of equipment and furniture for the home (IKEA) with its sharp increase in its turnover in the first quarter to 77.3 million euros against 61.8 million euros in 2021 already shows what lies ahead for the coming quarters and throughout 2023. It should be noted that the healthiest consolidated gross margin of 44% in recent years combined with the introduction of the subsidiary Trade Estates AEEAP in the fall will hardly leave capitalization below 300 million euros in the medium term, ie… 5.76 euros. Be careful, therefore, because the messages that the Fourlis group is sending to the market are that it is preparing to sprint. The administrative changes also show something like this.

* Apostolos Manthos is responsible for technical analysis and investment strategy

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