A few hours before the announcement of the financial results for the first quarter of 2023, the group Mytilene (MYTIL) finds itself on the table with a capitalization of 3.71 billion euros with yesterday’s daily Vwap of the title having fallen below the 26 euro mark and more precisely at 25.86 euro. From the point of view of the schematic analysis, the support zone of 25.50 euros seems to be of great importance for the future, while at the end of last March it was the strong driver on the upside. of the stock’s move towards the resistance level of 28.40. at 28 euros. So here, the stock after the -10% pullback from recent all-time highs should prove in future meetings that it does not intend to continue the existing downtrend in the short term by refusing to break the 25.50 point. euros. A level which, if it breaks down, has the potential to give prices in the fluctuation range that had moved in the first months of the year between 25 and 23 euros, but having as Vwap of l accumulation 24.30 euros. The challenge for buyers who are in a fighting position is to maintain the stability of the 25.50 to 25.38 euro zone in order to attempt a new bullish attempt to grab 27.12 euro. Allow me to recall here, from a fundamental point of view, that in the first quarter of last year, the group was just beginning its impressive journey, crossing the €1 billion mark for the first time. business, with the percentage increase compared to the corresponding revenue for the first quarter of 2021 approaching 100% (1.042 billion euros compared to 524 million euros). Regarding the annual figures for 2022, the total turnover exceeded 6.306 billion euros with a net profitability which soared to 466 million euros. And the chairman and CEO of the group, Mr. Evangelos Mytilineos, had said during the annual general meeting of shareholders held last June that the profitability will not be 260 million euros but more. In the end, the “top” came out, but in the square.
First quarter results are expected to be announced by TAKES AWAY next Friday before the start of the meeting. But here the schematic image of the title is far from being characterized as a simple healthy decline since the previous highs recorded last year in April at 18.50 euros are higher by +40% compared to the current price of 13, 26 euros. In fact, from its footprint on the weekly price chart so far, it doesn’t even look like the end of a downtrend. On the contrary, as long as it receives the prices inside the bearish channel “W” without having the strength to dissolve it upwards passing 14.54 euros, it will slide towards its lower flank, probably entering the zone of the 12.57 to 11.90 euros. for something to change radically and for the buyers to take over, it will not only be necessary for the share price to cross the 14.54 euro bar, but also for it to pass the 15 euro bar frontally, significantly increasing the volume of announced transactions. the group, despite revenues up 3.6% compared to 2021 (3.455 billion euros against 3.336 billion euros) posted a drop in profits of -20%, closing at 388.6 million euros against 487 million euros.
A 427% jump in net profitability was recorded for 2022 by the GEK TERNA (GEKTERNA) closing at €174.4 million compared to €33 million in 2021. Revenue was also strong as it closed up 244% at €3.938 billion compared to €1.144 billion. euros with the main “culprit” to hide in the energy production and trading sector (sales of 2.897 billion euros from 477 million euros). And the project order book reached a new historic record at 5.3 billion euros against 4.9 billion euros at the end of 2021 and even if large-scale and budgetary projects have been carried out or are already in progress, then that the “book” is not relevant to close while the group participates in several other flagship construction competitions. But what made a strong impression was the sharp drop in the net debt to EBITDA ratio where it literally plunged to 2.3 times against 3.8 times in 2021.
In the weekly chart analysis, the stock writes prices above 12 euros and close to the price target threshold of 13 euros that it has set itself since December 2022 with the upward dissolution of the upper range of long term at 10.60 euros. Here now, it remains to be seen if in the next few days the stock will dare to escape on the upside by chasing the next long-term target of 15.20 euros or if the nascent candlestick formation “Evening Doji Star” from last week gives a “bearish reversal” towards the EUR 11.74-11.60 level leaving a short-term local double top around EUR 13.
* Apostolos Manthos is responsible for technical analysis and investment strategy