The computer science department of the Aristotle University of Thessaloniki carried out the estimation of election results through artificial intelligence and emotional analysis of political tweets.
The Political Barometer was developed within the Artificial Intelligence and Information Analysis laboratory of the IT Department of AUTH. It is a political opinion estimation software using the analysis of political tweets referring to political parties, which are collected and analyzed daily.
The analysis is done with Artificial Intelligence methods (emotional analysis of texts). These are the political parties of the Hellenic Parliament for which sufficient data can be collected automatically from Twitter (in alphabetical order HELLENIC SOLUTION, KINAL, KKE, MERA25, ND, SYRIZA). The Political Barometer uses a modern political market, namely Twitter (according to the statements of the owner, ME Musk).
As the results show, in today’s estimate of voting intentions ND receives 31.7% and SYRIZA with 26.3%, while PASOK comes third with 8.7%. At 6% is KKE, at 3.6% MeRA25 and at 3.3% Hellenic solution.
With regard to the estimation of voting intentions today, with a reduction on the valid ones, the ND obtains 36.3%, while the SYRIZA 30.1%. KINAL reaches 10% and KKE reaches 6.9%, while MeRA25 is at 4.2% and Hellenic Solution at 3.7%.
The thriller with Polakis in SYRIZA overcame the quickly forgotten tragedy of Tempi
As mentioned in the corresponding update, it can replace polls, providing the following benefits:
- Public opinion analysis is daily, with a direct response to political stimuli
- The cost is almost zero.
- There is no serious deviation from the poll results, according to the analysis so far (May 2022-May 2023). The difference is around 0.5 to 1% for small and large parties respectively.
- It provides important political information. For example. of the total number of tweets, it appears that:
- The phone battle of political leaders had little impact on the world of Twitter.
- The case of Polakis’ eventual non-candidacy has surpassed even the Tempi tragedy by echoing on Twitter.
- It became apparent early on that the political impact of the Tempe tragedy was rather temporary.
The Political Barometer is an international first. There is no other system like this whose results are freely accessible to everyone, every day, by consulting the link of the Political Barometer HERE.
Estimated voting intention today:
Estimated voting intentions today, with reference to valid intentions:
- Estimated voting intentions, with reference to valid intentions (13/5/2023)
- Estimated intention to vote today (includes uncertain vote).
- Time series of voting intentions (estimated from polling and Twitter data)
- Political Trends (estimate of voting intention from political tweets only).
- Sentiment analysis results of political tweets from all parties.
- Total number of political tweets.
- Political events (peaks in the number of tweets).
- Average deviation of the Political Barometer from the 5/2022-5/2023 polls.
Twitter audiences have special characteristics. For example, they are mostly young, tend to be negative in their comments (usually swearing). Some parties (eg SYRIZA) have a larger and comparatively better presence on Twitter, relative to their appeal to the general electorate. The political barometer, with proper use of past polls and machine learning methods, can successfully narrow down the analysis to the general electorate (or rather the pollster) and make relevant predictions.
The Political Barometer software has been under evaluation for a year. In the absence of objective truth (actual election results, as no elections were held last year), it uses as “objective truth” to return to the general electorate all polls from all companies up to to 1 week ago. Therefore, while it only uses polls for educational purposes, while it uses tweets to predict election results, any criticism of polls is also partially valid for the Political Barometer.
According to the AUTH, the Policy Barometer method is here to stay: the more it is fed with correct and abundant data (and the more people use social media as a platform for political dialogue), the better it will become.
The research and development of the Political Barometer was carried out by the Computational Politics Research Group (parts of AIIA.CVML) of the Artificial Intelligence and Information Analysis Laboratory (AIIA Lab) of the Department of Computer Science of the ‘Aristotle University of Thessaloniki under the supervision of Professor AUTH M. I .Fly.
This will also give… an exit poll
Although, as noted, it’s not exactly a polling method, the Political Barometer stopped publishing forecasts on May 13 and will publish its forecasts again once the polls close.