Elections in Türkiye: Erdogan is favorite in the second round

Elections in Türkiye: Erdogan is favorite in the second round

Erdogan proved that he still has great political capital in the first round of Turkish elections.

The elections in Türkiye are turning into an electoral thriller. Tayyip Erdogan may have won with 49.5% against 44.89% for Kilicdaroglu, but everything will be decided in the second round of the elections, in which Sinan Ogan will have a special role, since Ince has withdrawn from the race to the presidency.

Despite the result and the holding of the second round of the elections, wanted by Erdogan, the competition was the most marginal for the Turkish president, compared to the two decades when he held the head of Turkey in his hands. High inflation, a sharp rise in the cost of living and strong criticism of his government’s handling of the crisis since the ‘Englade’ double strike in early February in southeastern Turkey led many to believe it would cost to the presidency.

Sinan Ogan started the bargains

Sinan Ogan managed to get 5.17% of the votes in the Turkish elections and for this reason he became the election regulator. With the withdrawal of Muharrem Ince from the presidential race, the nationalist presidential candidate with the votes at his disposal may be the one who will determine the course of events and especially the outcome of the election. Furthermore, Ogan had announced via journalist Bahar Feizan’s YouTube channel that he would have claims from the two gladiators in order to show his support for Erdogan or Kilicdaroglu.

“We will have demands, like ministries,” he announced via journalist Bahar Feizan’s YouTube channel the day after the first round of elections on May 14, “betting” on a second round to elect the president and “negotiating ” hard. As to who he will support, although before the election he said he would never tell the world who he would support if he lost, now speaking to Der Spiegel he said: “I will not support Kemal Kilicdaroglu only if the HDP is excluded from the political system”.

Finally, the main question remains how many of the 5.17% of voters who preferred him in the first round will follow his decision, or even what their turnout will be in the second round at the end of the month.

Erdogan advances to the second round with a big advantage

Despite being first, Erdogan will be called upon for the first time to challenge his re-election in the second round, and political analysts list their assessments of the strategy that the Turkish president will follow until the next election.

“He has a clear psychological lead over the opposition and will probably shift the weight of his electoral campaign over the next two weeks to national security,” notes political scientist Wolfango Piccoli.

“Erdogan has maintained his base of followers in the heart of Anatolia and in major cities in Turkey as he recorded excellent rates in the earthquake-affected areas. Some are surprised but apparently he did exactly what was expected of him and he promises even more after the election,” analyst Ali Carkoglu told Al Jazeera.

He points out that what the opposition has failed to do is find support in the “heart” of Turkey. “The Nationalist Action Party managed to maintain 10-11% of the vote without difficulty, while the IYI, an important partner of the opposition alliance, could not significantly increase its supporters”, explains he. According to what is written and reported in the international media, Tayyip Erdogan is now considered the favorite to win based on yesterday’s results

Analyzing the election result, the Financial Times writes that instead of ending Erdogan’s regime, the electoral process provoked reflection in the opposition camp. “What the result confirms is how polarized Turkish society has become, 100 years after the founding of the modern Turkish republic by Kemal Ataturk,” comments the BBC.

How Erdogan swept through disaster areas

The Turkish president succeeded in transforming the vote of discontent of the victims of the earthquake into a vote of confidence. In recent days, Erdogan, through his pre-election meetings, has tried to follow an infallible recipe.

In essence, this recipe is idiosyncratic Islamism, its intense nationalism and the great “gifts” of the Turkish President, from the courageous increases in salaries and pensions to the mass offer of Turkish citizenship to Afghans, Syrians and all others minorities they live there, nearly eliminating Kemal Kilicdaroglu from the race on the first lap.

Lack of transparency of the Electoral Council

Turkey’s High Electoral Council (YSK) showed a lack of transparency in how it handled presidential and parliamentary elections on Sunday (05/14), and biased media coverage raised concerns, officials said today. Observers from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe today. ).

An OSCE delegation said incumbent Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Turkey’s ruling parties have an unfair advantage over opposition parties facing unequal conditions in the election campaign.

These findings were made public today at a press conference held today by the Joint Monitoring Mission established by the OSCE’s Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR), l Parliamentary Assembly of the OSCE (PA OSCE) and the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (CoE).

“I note with regret that the work of the electoral authority lacked transparency, as well as the very strong bias of the state media and the restrictions on freedom of expression,” said Jan Petersen, head of the mission of observation, during a press conference in Ankara. . of ODIHR.

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