THE political survival Of the president Erdogan after the result of first round presidential and parliamentary electionsand the threat renewal of the presidential mandate his, we obligatory in certain revisions for the method analysis of Turkish politician systemic. Several in Europe they rushed to prejudge her autumn of Erdogan already two years ago.
In Greece, interest in Greek-Turkish relations leads several “Turkologists” to a person centered approach to Turkish political life with speculations for the strategy of this country, ignoring the institutional dimension and the dynamics of the political culture.
For example, the aggressive rhetoric of Erdogan against Greece interpreted as an electoral tactic to rally voters.
However, how it is interpreted the entire conversion of After their earthquake In TürkiyeTHE erasure almost all the reference against her from Athensand especially the new abstention of each company energy For sea or air? Once again she tried OK immediately After her offensive In Ukraine.
This conversion had no electoral cost performance her Erdogan’s candidacynor the question “Hellas» formed a stake of elections. We arrived at interval between the two presidents elections in Türkiye and on the eve of the elections in Greece, and a warm episode in the Aegean they are excellent amazing For first time the last fifty years or so.
THE second entry Who was refused is it the intensity her economic crisisTHE Consequently of inflation and the recent earthquake they would cause the election autumn of Erdogan.
it’s a methodological question error, because it takes for granted the electoral behavior of European political systems. In the latter, partisan identification now concerns a small percentage of the electorate, whereas pluralism information and powerful mechanisms responsibility are rapidly eroding government leadership.
On the contrary, in Türkiye THE boundaries Of the party competitionthe government talks To inside information and Organizations of the company of citizens to be clear Consequently at the event of questioning against government.
Also Erdogan’s leadership forged one kind supporter identification At supporters which has no analog in European democracies. The greatest percentage of 49% of the last performance has developed a powerful nationalist, religious and ideological ID cardwhich is extremely compact and stable.
THE Erdogan it is not only the organ of executive power that is judged for the efficiency of its work, but depositary a very specific perception For training And Assignment of State and his nation her Türkiye.
He responds with communication skills to retain its unconditional supporters. It prevails against the opponents of a country in which dominated THE nationalism and the religion still resist the effort of secularization since the establishment of the modern state.
THE economic crisis it had no corrupting effect, as generations of citizens went through many similar crises under Kemalist governments. But he is insurmountable The scale increase of biotic level and achievements of the country under Erdogan. The social movements that developed, for example, against the Macron reforms, could not manifest themselves under Erdogan. He was careful to confirm the Machiavellian saying that “they must fear you but not to be hated” and that “you must create a relationship of dependence on others vis-à-vis your own leadership”.
Finally, the hit of Erdogan East result and constitutional adjustment of executive power. THE imitation And despotism of Erdogan were reflected in the constitutional reform with the establishment of the presidential regime endowed with executive powers.
They created an extremely difficult condition for competition between parties, because one had to find one equal competitor of Erdogan for the unipersonal presidential institution. It was one too main drawback her oppositionforced into a compromise with two popular vice-presidents (the mayors of Istanbul and Ankara) and a presidential candidate representing the old regime.
The presidential regime insured her hegemony of Erdogan in the competition of state and party. However, there is one weakness.
If he had chosen his type semi-presidential regimeas applied in France or Russia for example, would have at his disposal a Prime Minister who would take on the arduous task of coordinating the government, but also of defending government policy in Parliament.
At the same time, it would act as decompression lever of questioning, because it would allow the president to change it with other ministers and create a system of government with a new dynamic.
Erdogan has not yet managed to dethrone him Kemal Since pedestal her historical leadershipbut became one of stronger leaders in hybrid systems that combine democratically made with him authoritarianism. He’s an old-fashioned despot, Direction “the grace of God”and now treats as opponent only the relentless biological deterioration.
THE Europe and the Hellas in particular, they should show more comprehension In particular policy culture and the influence of state structure on party competition, and to avoid assumptions that have explanatory power in democratic party systems, pluralist and secularized societies in Europe.
In many ways, the Türkiye it’s a State and a company with data of 19th century, but the power projection he makes has the momentum to create new data in the current juncture. THE truce in the operational area and re-election Erdoğan forms a new field For Greek-Turkish relationsand it would be futile to slide into a new phase of crisis, without exhausting the possibilities of resorting to international judicial jurisdiction for a mutually acceptable settlement of the disputes between us.
*Manos Papazoglou is Associate Professor of Political Systems in the Department of Political Science and International Relations at the University of Peloponnese.
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