T. Gerakis (Marc): The Danger of a Cowardly Vote – A Cooperative Government is Difficult, Not Impossible

T. Gerakis (Marc): The Danger of a Cowardly Vote – A Cooperative Government is Difficult, Not Impossible

THE loose vote he is the main hazard for the SW. Scenario for part of the voters to rest from the image of the growing gap with SYRIZA and not to vote on May 21. Even if the percentage is low, it can work against the goal of range, he notes. head of Mark, Th. Gerakis.

He sees this moment as hard – both numerically and politically – but not impossible, THE scenarios For cooperative governmentssince everything will be judged on the data after the first ballot, speaks of the unclear messages sent by SYRIZA and PASOK, which cost them, while he believes that the “Demeter” night at Varoufakis party. From 4.2% after Tempi, now go to 3.6%. “His supporters don’t seem to agree with the closed banks scenario, they support it, but for other reasons,” he says characteristically.

Interview with Giorgos Fintikakis

Where is attributed the image of this last round of opinion polls, where ND is recovering, SYRIZA remains stagnant, their gap oscillates around 6 points, while it hardly seems that a defeated government will emerge?

Political messages, in order to reach citizens, must be accompanied by a few terms. THE First of all, messages should be simple and understandable. THE second, so as not to leave misunderstandings and ambiguities. THE Tuesday the postulate is that the message makes sense, that is to say that it is accompanied by an essential proposition of governance. In this sense, the general principle says that political forces that send simple and clear messages have an advantage.

Clearly, in this electoral race, the message her SW it is also simple And to do the housework, whether we agree with him or not. Messages from other parties face ambiguities and various problems.

In his case SYRIZAcorrectly Tsipras initially sent the message her progressive governance, however, when the main partners in such a collaboration, such as PASOK and Varoufakis, differentiate themselves from the initial proposal, distance themselves from it or flatly deny it, then it seems to lack substance.

The same thing happened with his message N.Androulakis for collaborations but with Prime Minister A third person, not Mitsotakis or Tsipras, who polls have shown are not accepted by the electorate. This does not help PASOK and its leader. We see this from the answers to both the specific question and the voting intention, where there is a small gradual but continuous drop in PASOK’s percentages. From the 15% it was when Androulakis was elected the new leader of PASOK, it is now around 9%. In the latest Marc poll, the party loses half a point compared to the previous one.

in conclusionTHE vague cost of messages to SYRIZA and to PASOK. Creative ambiguity is often a necessary part of political discourse, when a large part of the electorate wants cooperation with the ND, another with SYRIZA and a third with neither, but the reality of the numbers shows that this does not didn’t work.

Is there a scenario of cooperation government from the first round, based on the numbers?

Totals are displayed hardHowever not impossible. A 46%adding the percentages SW And PASOK it is very difficult, but not impossible. Accordingly difficult, but not impossible, seems a sum above 46% For SYRIZATHE PASOK And Day 25. At the moment, partnerships look difficult, both numerically and politically, although after the election, depending on the data, the parties could reconsider their current position.

How feasible is the autonomy scenario?

This is obviously not an easy task, but it is also not something in the realm of the imagination. Many go depend Since result her first round. He is a feasible electoral target For SW. In the intention to vote, it brings together 32.1%whereas if we had included the vote estimate in the last poll, we would have given the ND to 34%. It is a percentage that justifies hope towards the goal of autonomy.

However, ND and SYRIZA are now close to 70% in terms of support. And this is also the reason why we are witnessing a small rise of SYRIZA, because its mobilization is also increasing. It’s just that the ND seems to make more profits than the other parties.

So what is the most critical thing for the ND, after and after this new round of voting, three weeks before the polls?

THE loose vote without a doubt. THE hazard a portion votersFor rest again image of the poll of the growing gap with SYRIZA and not going to vote on May 21. It’s a existing scenario. Even if this percentage of voters is not large, it may nevertheless prove capable of hindering or even reversing the ND’s objective of autonomy.

In the case of Mr. Varoufakis, is the “Dimitra” plan finally working, in his favor or not?

Before Tempe, all polls had day 25 except Parliament, with percentages 2.7%-2.9% Their increase began to be registered after the drama, largely expressing the so-called anti-system current. A month ago, we recorded Mr. Varoufakis’ party at 4.2%, but in our last poll, we found it at 3.6%.

I venture to make a working case, that the discussion and all the noise surrounding the “Demetra” plan have not favored it. That is, whatever benefits he received from him anti-systemic space are not related to the debate on the banks, it is rather an option against the big parties and the system.

Today we see that the uptrend that was present on day 25 after Tempi has stopped. THE Map “Dimitra” operates instead negatively for him. Its supporters do not seem to agree with the scenario of the closed banks, they support it, but for other reasons.

Let’s move on to the undecided. Is it the 500,000 or so voters, this 10%-11% that all the polls find, who will judge the result?

Not in its basic characteristics, but in its details. THE undecided is not able to to spill THE result and the order of the parts, but they can increase or decrease them various and of course it is a critical mass for the sums.

here is one myththat the undecided it is to a large extent young woman of age. Not valid. The majority of them are undecided centrists electors and solar belong to all categories.

Looking at the origin of the party in survey her Markthe largest group, namely the 23.5%just SWwhile of the SYRIZA THE 18%. Therefore the I ruled faction here maintains a theory advantage in the attempt to recover them, without this implying in advance that he will succeed.

To the question “between which options do you hesitate”, the 28% answers between SW and another choice, 23% between SYRIZA and another choice, while the percentage between PASOK and another choice is similar.

What does this show us? That theoretically always, the PASOK he has opportunity get good percentages undecided, as it is found in two reservoirs. In the one where the voters oscillate between PASOK and ND and in the one where they oscillate between PASOK and SYRIZA.

Do the individual questions for the undecided help us to better understand?

In individual matters, such as e.g. “which government do you prefer”, the 9% favorite autonomous government SWwhile the 5.9% one-party government SYRIZA. Moreover, a cooperation government with the ND corps prefers it 27.8%, while a coalition government with SYRIZA at its core, 22.3%. By adding the percentages, an independent ND government and a government of cooperation with the ND core, we obtain 36.8%, while an autonomous SYRIZA government and a government of cooperation with the SYRIZA core, gives 28.2%.

Interestingly, in previous elections, the largest percentage of the undecided mix were voters from a SYRIZA party. Now that is not the case. It therefore seems that the undecided will be distributed proportionally between the parties, ND and PASOK having a relative advantage.

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